It’s Getting Very Hot, So Why are We Turning Up the Thermostat?

Over the weekend as the family sat outside under the patio umbrella, my mother-in-law exclaimed, “You know, I recall we used to be able to sit out in the summer without it being unbearable. Scott, is this weather we’ve been having unusual?” I responded with, “Welcome to the new normal and it is only going to get hotter and more humid in the future.”

Humans are overloading the air with too much carbon and that this carbon is causing the planet to dramatically warm. Increasing carbon will cause this warming to continue. During the height of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill in 2010, about 5,000 metric tons of oil spilled into the water a day. At the same time, human activities were pumping 82 million metric tons of carbon dioxide daily into the atmosphere, a record. For perspective, our emissions from fossil fuels are equivalent to 15,000 Gulf oil spills every single day. And each year, we keep setting a new record for carbon emissions. We should be applying the brakes but instead we are stepping on the gas.

The physics of increasing heat-trapping gases tells us:

1. We will experience more heat waves and these heat waves will become even hotter
2. Higher latitudes (toward the poles) will warm the most while lower latitudes (tropics) will warm less
3. Winters will warm faster than summers
4. Nights will warm faster than days

Last year, NOAA issued the latest 30 year climate normals for the United States, and as expected, points #2, 3, and 4 are evidenced in Figures #1 and #2. 

Most locations have warmed and the greatest increases have occurred in higher latitudes, during winter, and during the overnight hours. Just as heat-trapping greenhouse gas warming should do. Figure #3 also shows why this warming is not “natural.”

The number of record high temperatures are blowing away that of record low temperatures in the US (and most of the rest of the world).

So what can New Yorkers expect in the future as humans keep pumping more and more heat-trapping gases into the air? New York summers in the future are likely to be similar to summer in South Carolina and Georgia today. See Figures #4 and #5.

Imagine as many as 25 days where temperatures reach 100F or higher in NY City during summer. Do you want to be out and about in that weather?

NY City is no exception. Figure #6 shows how heat waves are expected to increase all across the US in the next few decades.

According to Stanford University scientists Diffenbaugh and Ashfaq (2010):

“In the next 30 years, we could see an increase in heat waves like the one now occurring in the eastern United States or the kind that swept across Europe in 2003 that caused tens of thousands of fatalities. Those kinds of severe heat events also put enormous stress on major crops like corn, soybean, cotton and wine grapes, causing a significant reduction in yields.”

Heat waves also decrease air quality, drive up our electric bills with extended use of air conditioners, and reduce the ability for our kids to enjoy their recreational activities. Will that baseball or football game be cancelled due to excessive heat? Two weeks ago my son’s gymnastics practice was cancelled because, although housed indoors, the AC was not able to keep up with the heat. Now that facility is spending money to upgrade their cooling capacity which means we parents can expect an increase in the cost of this sport next year for our athletes.

What can you do to help? Be more energy-efficient () talk to family and friends about how this hot weather will become the norm and that much worse heat waves are coming,  demand that carbon be priced in a way that will allow renewable energy choices such as wind and solar to become more price-competitive with coal and oil, and vote for leaders who accept the science and are willing to solve the crisis. Make climate change one of your election priorities.

What would you rather see being built outside your window? I bet it isn’t what you see in Figure #7!